Background
With the new rules around the return of the premier league in the Covid 19 situation, a set of new rules have come into play to protect the players from physical injury. Has this changed the the playing field and which teams will benefit from these?
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Since lockdown started, there have been numerous meetings around “Project Restart”. Of course, initially, a few teams wanted it voided. However, once the financial implications were realised, there was no choice but to play. We then had concerns around neutral venues. After weeks of discussions, this was no longer on the cards as it was felt that this would be give unfair advantages to those teams who have more games left at home. Whilst all this happened, some subtle changes were agreed. How will they affect results? Of course, we have only completed one round of the premier league fixtures but already we can see that the initial affect of these changes.
Change 1 – Five Substitutes Allowed
The ability to bring on five new players came in due the recommendations of the sport scientists. With the freakishly long break, lack of time for preseason friendlies, injuries to players was a fear. So it is hard to argue with this change.
There are murmurings that this change gives an unfair advantage to the richer teams who have deeper squads. Manchester City’s game against Burnley on Monday night was a good example of this. Granted that Burnley were already three goals down by the time De Bruyne, Jesus, Sane and Laporte came on. However, it can be disheartening to think that as a smaller team, you can work your socks off for seventy minutes in a game and then see this calibre of players come on to exploit your tiredness.
Slightly deviating, one interesting example of the use of substitutes came on sixty minutes at the London stadium when the super fast Adama Traore came on. How do you deal with such a player when everyone is tired. Well, that is something managers have to think about.
Team selections will become interesting now. Do you save some defenders or combative midfielders to come on later in the match? How to you rotate players to ensure the demanding fixture congestion can be finished without picking up injuries?
The reality is that richer teams with deeper squads will always have a better chance of winning the match and now with the ability to use more of those players, they will no doubt win those matches no matter what you do.
Change 2- Nine Substitutes Allowed on the bench
This was an interesting one. A late change rumoured to have been requested by Chelsea got approved. This has made the five substitute rule even more ominous. Now you can stack up your team with an array of attackers who can come on when the opposition is tired. Typically, a bench of seven players would include a goalkeeper, a couple of defenders, midfielders and forwards. You can now have the same number in each position but a staggering four attacking players to break down that stubborn team. In a way, this has made the five substitute rule a game changer and has surely ensured that all things being equal and good management, teams with deeper squads should win the match.
Change 3 – Mid Half Water Breaks
Finally, the one that we all forgot about. A water break, midway through each half. This is where we may find that the underdog has inadvertently got a rule change that helps them. Instead of holding on for forty five minutes before resetting your plan, you get through twenty odd minutes, get rested and reset. Teams which need to build up rhythm may well find this a disadvantage. Imagine you are trying to get a draw against a better team. You start the game slowly, commit a few tactical fouls, time waste and by the time the other team somehow get a hold of the game, oh, its a drinks break! Do the same thing four times and you have your clean sheet.
Simple, but have no doubt, the better managers will find a way of making this work also so not so simple. Great managers have a way of finding solutions. When teams sit deep against Liverpool, Klopp’s team go more direct. They give you the ball near your own goal and press you like crazy. Lose the ball there and all of a sudden, a great chance to score. Oh, so we press them so they can’t build from the back. No worries for Guardiola, we will have a goalkeeper who can pass better than most of your team and bypass your press.
Conclusion
It will be interesting in the coming weeks to see how teams will adapt to this new fusion of the game. Of course, there are no supporters, VAR will still be misused and underused and goal line technology may forget to beep. However, ignore all that and let’s enjoy observing how this new version of our beautiful game plays out.
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